Ok, so its that time of year again when people start posting bulletins about boycotting Exxon-Mobile, not buy gas on a certain day, and of course general bitching about the evil oil companies and their price gouging.
Well folks,
A. Even if everyone did the boycotts they wouldn’t work, gas is pretty fungible (gas is gas unless…) and the companies tend to buy from one another (that Shell gas you thought you bought could be from Citgo, gasp!) and you are not really asking people to reduce the overall demand. Just a one day boycott results in an increase in demand on the days before or after. A boycott of a single company means an increase in demand for the other companies resulting in higher prices at their stations resulting in the less dedicated moving back until prices equalize, plus in the interim, to meet the temporary increase in demand the other companies just buy gas from the empty stations.
B. The prices aren’t the result of anything the oil companies did (except try and produce the stuff) but rather a complex storm of events: exploding demand on the foreign (yes other people in other countries buy gas too), limited US refinery capacity, and uncertainty over the reliability of future supplies due to stuff happening in the middle east. Couple that with the insistence of US Citizens to purchase massive vehicles, drive 50 miles to go to work, compain about it, and all at the same time not invest in public transit or other alternative transportation/shipping options. You have your reasons, demand is just as important as supply in determining what prices are at.
We need better solutions then just bitching and demanding prices go down with out any serious investment in the long term sustainability of our energy sector, not short term price breaks. If we are concerned about windfall profits, lets tax those and use the money to supplement low to moderate income households transportation options, rather then simply reduce environmental protections and risk causing long term irreparable damage to our environment. There are tons of more sensible solutions to this problems then doing everything but look at the importances of creating viable future alternatives.
For people like me, gas prices will make a dent in my pocket book, but it forces me to make the trade off between less gin or walking to work.
Choices.
I will now duck in order to protect my face from any oncoming projectiles.
About how we process information:
What the decoy effect basically shows is that when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick. If one front-runner looks much better than the third candidate, people gravitate toward that front-runner. Third candidates, in other words, can make a complicated decision feel simple.
Read more…
Why do they have to be so painful?
So yesterday was a busy day. After all this usually my monthly busy week. Once I got home I decided to unwind a little, have a beer and enjoy some of my favorite television on. I was halfway through and enjoyable episode of scrubs when it happened. Bam. KHQ Breaking news! The title card flashes, the cheesy music and graphics wind up. My mind wanders and I think what has happened? Another earthquake in Seattle? They caught Osama Bin Laden (finally)? A tanker crashed at fairchild? What?
Then the newscaster comes on and announces in a serious voice there are a bunch of police at sprague and lincoln which have been shut down because of a fight at a club. Thats right folks, a fight at a club. Seriously? Thats breaking news? Six cop cars show up in one place and they have to waste 2 minutes of my time to explain that they don’t know whats going on (and a news team is on the way) but they thought I should know that six cops cars have shut down sprague and lincoln because of a fight. At a club. Oh and now that we have your attention lets give you 15 seconds of a bad press conference of a basketball player biting his nails and talking about Gonzaga’s loss. Then we will come back to the six cop cars because that is really exciting.
Now back to our regularly scheduled advertising.
Here is a great piece on how we design our presentations. Why is it so hard for people to grasp the concept that too much information on a slide dilute the power of the presentation?
Signal vs. noise. Why is it so hard to filter out noise when trying to create a signal. Seems simple enough.
I am finding this election cycle to be fairly annoying, for a couple of reasons.
Most parties website spend valuable time and energy talking in these vague, abstract unclear terms that mean nothing to me as a moderately liberal voter. What I want is a clear message that I can hash out and vote on. I mean seriously, the Republican’s approval rating in both congress and the white house is in the 30-40% range. People don’t like Bush, they don’t like congress, and they sure as hell don’t like the direction the country is going. This election is the democrats to lose. Any other system, or most other countries they would have a signficant chance at taking back at least a majority in the Senate and a signficant majority in the House. But from what I have been reading there isn’t much of a chance of it going beyond a razor thin majority. In my opinion its because there is no clear message, and no clear idea that I should be voting for except the “not Bush” ticket.
The other thing that bothers me is if a party loses an election, (if the Democrats fail to take a majority) there is clear lack of accountablity of party leadership. The party leaders won’t resign, there won’t be a cry for fresh blood at the top, and there won’t be a growth and the recognition that the party needs new leadership. (at least thats what history looks like from the outside). In my opinion if the democrats fail to take a majority, they need to do some serious housecleaning. Their leaders should expect to resign, and they need to sort through what it will take to win the election. More of the same just won’t do it.