Ok, so its that time of year again when people start posting bulletins about boycotting Exxon-Mobile, not buy gas on a certain day, and of course general bitching about the evil oil companies and their price gouging.
Well folks,
A. Even if everyone did the boycotts they wouldn’t work, gas is pretty fungible (gas is gas unless…) and the companies tend to buy from one another (that Shell gas you thought you bought could be from Citgo, gasp!) and you are not really asking people to reduce the overall demand. Just a one day boycott results in an increase in demand on the days before or after. A boycott of a single company means an increase in demand for the other companies resulting in higher prices at their stations resulting in the less dedicated moving back until prices equalize, plus in the interim, to meet the temporary increase in demand the other companies just buy gas from the empty stations.
B. The prices aren’t the result of anything the oil companies did (except try and produce the stuff) but rather a complex storm of events: exploding demand on the foreign (yes other people in other countries buy gas too), limited US refinery capacity, and uncertainty over the reliability of future supplies due to stuff happening in the middle east. Couple that with the insistence of US Citizens to purchase massive vehicles, drive 50 miles to go to work, compain about it, and all at the same time not invest in public transit or other alternative transportation/shipping options. You have your reasons, demand is just as important as supply in determining what prices are at.
We need better solutions then just bitching and demanding prices go down with out any serious investment in the long term sustainability of our energy sector, not short term price breaks. If we are concerned about windfall profits, lets tax those and use the money to supplement low to moderate income households transportation options, rather then simply reduce environmental protections and risk causing long term irreparable damage to our environment. There are tons of more sensible solutions to this problems then doing everything but look at the importances of creating viable future alternatives.
For people like me, gas prices will make a dent in my pocket book, but it forces me to make the trade off between less gin or walking to work.
Choices.
I will now duck in order to protect my face from any oncoming projectiles.
About how we process information:
What the decoy effect basically shows is that when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick. If one front-runner looks much better than the third candidate, people gravitate toward that front-runner. Third candidates, in other words, can make a complicated decision feel simple.
Read more…
Why do they have to be so painful?
Signal vs. noise. Why is it so hard to filter out noise when trying to create a signal. Seems simple enough.
I am finding this election cycle to be fairly annoying, for a couple of reasons.
Most parties website spend valuable time and energy talking in these vague, abstract unclear terms that mean nothing to me as a moderately liberal voter. What I want is a clear message that I can hash out and vote on. I mean seriously, the Republican’s approval rating in both congress and the white house is in the 30-40% range. People don’t like Bush, they don’t like congress, and they sure as hell don’t like the direction the country is going. This election is the democrats to lose. Any other system, or most other countries they would have a signficant chance at taking back at least a majority in the Senate and a signficant majority in the House. But from what I have been reading there isn’t much of a chance of it going beyond a razor thin majority. In my opinion its because there is no clear message, and no clear idea that I should be voting for except the “not Bush” ticket.
The other thing that bothers me is if a party loses an election, (if the Democrats fail to take a majority) there is clear lack of accountablity of party leadership. The party leaders won’t resign, there won’t be a cry for fresh blood at the top, and there won’t be a growth and the recognition that the party needs new leadership. (at least thats what history looks like from the outside). In my opinion if the democrats fail to take a majority, they need to do some serious housecleaning. Their leaders should expect to resign, and they need to sort through what it will take to win the election. More of the same just won’t do it.
If anyone out there is interested in a great site for tracking the 2006 election polling data, here it is. (I know a weird pastime). They did a pretty good job for the presidental election, though the guy running it leans democratic, he tries to pull the data from all spectrums. Really interesting stuff and definitely worth a look.
I have noticed that recently that more and more trucks have their tailgates down as they are driving around town and on the freeway. For those of you who don’t know, putting a tailgate down can improve the fuel efficency of a truck by reducing the drag. Most of the time it probably isn’t worth it (the utility gained from saving gas isn’t as much as the coolness factor lost by driving around with your tailgate hanging out), but with gas prices at $3.11 (at my station) we are probably seeing a shift in behavior.
Amazing isn’t it? People change their behavior and try to conserve more when prices go up…
This quote just came up on Google’s quote of the day. It is one of my favorites, from one of my favorite Philosophers/Economist/Geniuses etc:
If mankind minus one were of one opinion, then mankind is no more justified in silencing the one than the one – if he had the power – would be justified in silencing mankind.
—John Stuart Mill, On Liberty
There is the rub isn’t it? How do we listen to opinions that we might find distasteful, repugnant or even down right harmful? Sometimes is the hardest thing to do, especially if it is within your power to silence such opinions, but then again no one ever said freedom of speech is an easy right to maintain…